Introduction

• Recent Publications
• Cloud Computing
• Project Management
• Information Operations and Cyber Security
• Modeling and Simulation
• Training
• Systems Engineering
• Miscellaneous

Recent Publications

"Cyber Maneuver and Schemes of Maneuver: Preliminary Concepts, Definitions, and Examples": This article presents a proactive approach to both offensive and defensive cyber maneuvers. For offensive cyber maneuvers, don't just find vulnerabilities, create them! For defensive cyber maneuvers, take actions to cause the undetected adversary to respond in a way that exposes them to detection and response. Commanders using this approach do not need be "techies" to define a cyber scheme of maneuver.

Cyber Defense Review, Fall 2020; https://cyberdefensereview.army.mil/Portals/6/Documents/2020_fall_cdr/2020_fall_cdr_full.pdf

"Overview of Immersive Technology: Terminology, State of the Art, and APL Efforts"

Simpkins, Scott D., Patrick D. Allen, Nick W. DeMatt, JHU/APL Technical Digest, Vol. 35 Issue #3; 2020; https://www.jhuapl.edu/TechDigest/Detail?Journal=J&VolumeID=35&IssueID=3

Book Chapters:

Co-authored 3 Chapters in the book Resistance and the Cyber Domain, published by the U.S. Special Operations Command as part of the Assessing Revolutionary and Insurgency Strategies (ARIS) series; available online at: https://www.soc.mil/ARIS/books/pdf/resistance-cyber.pdf

Hairball Buster: A Graph Triage Method for Viewing and Comparing Graphs: This paper presents a new and efficient approach that uses simple calculations and visualization to quickly understand and compare graphs. Rather than displaying highly interconnected graphs as "hairballs" that are difficult to understand, HB provides a simple standard visual representation of a graph and its metrics, combining a monotonically-decreasing curve of node metrics with indicators of each node's neighbors' metrics. The HB visual is canonical, in the sense that it provides a standard output for each node-link graph. It helps analysts quickly identify areas for further investigation, and also allows for easy comparison between graphs of different datasets. The calculations required for creating a HB display is order M plus N log N, where N is the number of nodes and M is the number of edges. This paper includes examples of the HB approach applied to four real-world datasets. It also compares HB to similar visual approaches such as degree histograms, adjacency matrices, blockmodeling, and force-based layout techniques. HB presents greater information density than other algorithms at lower or equal calculation cost, efficiently presenting information in a single display that is not available in any other single display.

Allen, Patrick, Mark Matties, Elisha Peterson, "Hairball Buster: A Graph Triage Method for Viewing and Comparing Graphs," Connections, Volume 39 Issue 1 Pages 1-24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21307/connections-2019-009, 28-February-2020; https://www.exeley.com/connections/doi/10.21307/connections-2019-009

Patent # 10,440,055: Apparatus and Method for Implementing Network Deception, award date 8 Oct 2019. Also called the Network Deception and Response Toolkit (Network DART).

MAD-IoT: Memory Anomaly Detection for the Internet of Things. This paper uses selected machine learning techniques to identify anomalies in Internet of Things device memory to determine whether it has been infected.

J. Myers, L. Babun, E. Yao, S. Helble and P. Allen, "MAD-IoT: Memory Anomaly Detection for the Internet of Things," 2019 IEEE Globecom Workshops (GC Wkshps), Waikoloa, HI, USA, 2019, pp. 1-6. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/9024539.

Cloud Computing

Book: Cloud Computing 101: A Primer for Project Managers (CreateSpace, 2015)

Talk: YouTube Video on "Cloud Computing 101: A Brief Overview and Common Security Issues" - A Tech Talk for JHU Applied Physics Lab, 10/25/2017 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uR66Q6n56U0

Project Management

Book: Cloud Computing 101: A Primer for Project Managers

The Demonstration Plan Template: Many technical demonstrations fail due to lack of adequate preparation and planning. This paper provides a template for technical demonstrations, including what to show versus what to describe, and how to provide back-up and contingency plans for all key elements of a technical demonstration.

Managing Knowledge in Technical Demonstration Plans: A Template, Knowledge Management Research & Practice (KMRP), 2008, No. 6, pp. 245-253.

System of System Engineering and Measuring Project Complexity: This paper presents an approach that uses a checklist for measuring project complexity in a system of systems environment. This article originally appeared in the inaugural issue of the journal Systems Research Forum.

Allen, Patrick, Martin Cury, Rachael Orzechowsky, A SOSE Checklist and Mitigation Checklist Applied to Three Case Studies, Systems Research Forum, Schaefer School of Engineering Press, Stevens Institute of Technology, for the International Council of Systems Engineers, 2006.

Information Operations and Cyber Security

"Cyber Maneuver and Schemes of Maneuver: Preliminary Concepts, Definitions, and Examples": This article presents a proactive approach to both offensive and defensive cyber maneuvers. For offensive cyber maneuvers, don't just find vulnerabilities, create them! For defensive cyber maneuvers, take actions to cause the undetected adversary to respond in a way that exposes them to detection and response. Commanders using this approach do not need be "techies" to define a cyber scheme of maneuver.

Cyber Defense Review, Fall 2020; https://cyberdefensereview.army.mil/Portals/6/Documents/2020_fall_cdr/2020_fall_cdr_full.pdf

Patent # 10,440,055: Apparatus and Method for Implementing Network Deception, award date 8 Oct 2019. Also called the Network Deception and Response Toolkit (Network DART).

Book: Information Operations Planning (Artech House, 2007)

Book Chapters: Co-authored 3 Chapters in the book Resistance and the Cyber Domain, published by the U.S. Special Operations Command as part of the Assessing Revolutionary and Insurgency Strategies (ARIS) series; available online at: https://www.soc.mil/ARIS/books/pdf/resistance-cyber.pdf

MAD-IoT: Memory Anomaly Detection for the Internet of Things. This paper uses selected machine learning techniques to identify anomalies in Internet of Things device memory to determine whether it has been infected.

J. Myers, L. Babun, E. Yao, S. Helble and P. Allen, "MAD-IoT: Memory Anomaly Detection for the Internet of Things," 2019 IEEE Globecom Workshops (GC Wkshps), Waikoloa, HI, USA, 2019, pp. 1-6. https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/9024539.

Mobile Communications Pre-authentication Algorithm: This IEEE paper presents a comparison of various pre-authentication methods to maintain continuous secure communications for mobile subscribers. It also provides four measures of effectiveness for determining the performance of each approach, and formulas for estimating performance based on design parameters.

Christakos, Constantine, and Patrick Allen, Scalable Pre-Authentication Algorithm for Wireless Networks, IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Transportation (TVT), Vol. 61, Issue 7, September 2012, pp 3166-3176. (Requires membership or purchase.)

Understanding Local Actor Bases of Power: This article was published in the IO Journal by the National Defense University, and describes an approach to describe the social, economic, political, military and informational bases of power, what they rely upon, and how they conflict and/or cooperate with other local actors.

Understanding Local Actor Bases of Power, IO Journal, National Defense University, June 2010

Qualifying the Information Sphere as a Domain: This paper defines and describes the characteristics of a domain and how domains evolve over time, including the information Sphere domain. (The information sphere is larger than just the cyber domain.) This paper was published in the Journal of information Warfare, Vol. 9 issue 3, December 2010, and a related article (below) was presented at a NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence conference in Estonia.

Allen, Patrick and Dennis Gilbert, The Information Sphere Domain: Increasing Understanding and Cooperation, NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence

Media Model Paper: This paper was published in the journal IO Sphere, and the model was also implemented as part of the DARPA Integrated Battle Command project.

Accounting for Bias in Broadcast Media Message Acceptance, IO Sphere, the Joint Information Operations Warfare Command, Summer 2008 (use the link above to download the issue or go to http://home.iosphere.org/?page_id=234 and scroll down to "Summer 2008").

Training and Planning for Shifting Allegiances: In modern conflicts, there has been a resurgence of allegiance-shifting among various actors. This paper describes how and why to include the opportunities and mechanisms for shifting allegiances in both conventional and stability operations. It also makes recommendations for improvements in both the design of training events and training and battle command systems.

Training and Planning for Shifting Allegiances, RUSI Journal, Royal Uniformed Services Institute, (Vol. 153, No 5, 2008) (requires membership to access)

Cyber Defense Course of Action Process: This paper presents an approach to cyber defense that focuses on the top-N threat reports based on the depth, breadth, and frequency of the observed activity. The paper was presented at the MilCom 2006 conference, published in the proceedings, and is available from IEEE Explore.

Increasing Flexibility in Network Visibility and Intrusion Response, Mil Com 2006.

Palestinian/Israeli Cyber War: This paper is probably one of our most often cited even though now decades old. The paper examined the causes, events and outcomes of the Palestinian/Israeli cyber war of 2000/2001, and the US/China Cyber Skirmish over the EP-3 incident. The article also described probable cyber activities in future conflicts. Besides appearing in the English version of Military Review, it also appeared in the Latin American Edition of Military Review, September-October 2003 and the Brazilian Edition of Military Review 1st Qtr 2004.

Allen, Patrick D. and Chris Demchak, The Palestinian/Israeli Cyber War and Implications for the Future, Military Review, March-April, 2003

An IO Conceptual Model and Application Framework: This paper described how to model Information Operations, and how to represent the various aspects of offensive IO using a variant of the Observe-Orient-Decide-Act model.

Allen, Patrick, and Chris Demchak, An IO Conceptual Model and Application Framework, Military Operations Research Journal, Special Issue on IO/IW, Vol. 6 #2, 2001. Available only to MORJ subscribers.

Book Chapters: "Information Operations" and "The Future of Military Operational Analysis," in Methods for Conducting Military Operational Analysis, edited by by Andrew G. Loerch and Larry B. Rainey, the Military Operations Research Society and LMI Research Institute, June 2007

Modeling and Simulation

"Overview of Immersive Technology: Terminology, State of the Art, and APL Efforts"

Simpkins, Scott D., Patrick D. Allen, Nick W. DeMatt, JHU/APL Technical Digest, Vol. 35 Issue #3; 2020; https://www.jhuapl.edu/TechDigest/Detail?Journal=J&VolumeID=35&IssueID=3

Generic Sensor Model: This paper describes a generic model of both active and passive sensors, dividing each leg of the transmission into separate calculations. The OPNET model was used in this application to model the bending and attenuation of the signals and the calculation of the final power and signal-to-noise ratio.

Allen, Patrick D., and Andy Cullington, An Approach for Generic Sensor Models, Journal of Simulation, The Operations Research Society, Vol. 6, 13 January 2012, pp. 103-111 (doi:10.1057/jos.2011.25) (click "download PDF" in the right column to access)

Multi User Virtual Environments (MUVEs): This paper describes how MUVEs can be applied to a variety of government, military and business organizations in a wide range of applications. It also presents some topics for research to improve the ability of MUVEs to better support a wider range of application areas. It was first published by the Journal of Virtual World Research in their Metaverse Assembled 2.0 issue (Vol. 4, #1), but was then moved to the Government and Military issue (Vol. 4, #2).

Allen, Patrick D., and Chris C. Demchak, Applied Virtual Environments: Applications of Virtual Environments to Government, Military and Business Organizations, Journal of Virtual World Research, Vol. 4 Number 2, Government and Military, September 2011

Modeling Types of Battles: This paper presents the rationale and need for combat simulations to represent the different types of battles and phases of battle, rather than just the constant head-to-head often encountered in combat models. These concepts have helped guide the development of improved force-on-force simulations.

The Need to Represent a Wide Variety of Battle Types in Air-Ground Combat Models, Military Operations Research Journal, Vol. I No. 3, Fall, 1995. Available only to MORJ subscribers.

Quality in Policy Modeling: After almost a decade of developing and evaluating policy models at RAND, a team of us got together to define best practices for what defines quality in policy modeling and which recommendations to make for the future. This RAND report was also published in the Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences (INFORMS) journal Interfaces.

Allen, Patrick; Bennett, Bart; Carillo, Manuel; Goeller, Bruce; Walker, Warren, Quality in Policy Modeling, Interfaces, 1991. Available by subscription or for purchase from Interfaces; also available for a fee from RAND.

Book Chapter: "Modeling Qualitative Issues in Military Simulations with the RAND-ABEL Language," with Barry Wilson, in Progress in Simulation Vol. II, George Zobrist, Ed., Ablex Publishing Company, 1994. This chapter describes the need for, and proposed solution for, representing a wide range of qualitative factors in combat models. In this case, our modeling platform was a new modeling language that allowed users to modify all the model parameters on the fly given a set of templates.

Modeling GPS in Combat Models: This paper addresses methods by which a non-lethal capability such as GPS and other navigational aids can be accurately and adequately represented within a theater-level combat model. Having accurate location can make a unit move more quickly, but faster movement does not necessarily equate to improved combat (such as when quickly moving into an ambush). This paper discusses the various contexts and measures by which non-lethal assets can be adequately represented in an aggregate combat model with a reasonable amount of accuracy.

Modeling Global Positioning System Effects in the TLC/NLC Model, The RAND Corporation, 1994

Modeling Benefits of Intelligence Assets in Combat Models: Like the preceding paper, this paper attempts to estimate the value of intelligence assets in support of combat operations. Two types of models are discussed--a more detailed model representing improvements to situation awareness and targeting, and a less-detailed spreadsheet model of the benefit of mixes of tactical intelligence assets.

A New Approach for Measuring the Operational Value of Intelligence for Military Operations: Final Report, The RAND Corporation, 1994

Modeling Air Combat Model Engagements and Losses: Most air combat models attempt to either represent air combat at the individual or few-on-few level. This paper describes the factors that need to be considered to represent contextual or situational factors -- including the level of available intelligence, sensors, and ground and air control support -- to cause air engagements to occur, as well as how these factors contribute to combat losses. The paper uses influence diagrams to describe how each factor contributes to or detracts from engagement and attrition rates.

Air Combat Model Engagement and Attrition Processes High Level Design, The RAND Corporation, 1993

Evolution of Models at the Warrior Preparation Center: This report is an excellent example of how an organization can paint itself into a corner by not revisiting assumptions made years ago. The Warrior Preparation Center, a simulation-based training support facility in Europe, was facing closure due to an increasing number of simulation errors occurring during exercises. By identifying the organization's underlying assumptions that were no longer currently applicable, the author was able to help the WPC identify what went wrong and how to fix it. Two recommendations were implemented by the WPC within two years, and all four recommendations were implemented within four years and sustained the organization for many years thereafter. This approach to identifying long-held assumptions is a standard technique this author uses to help organizations solve apparently intractable problems.

Evolution of Models at the Warrior Preparation Center: Problems and Solutions for Higher-Echelon Exercises, The RAND Corporation, 1993

Modeling Benefits of Intelligence Assets in Combat Models: The annotated briefing that goes along with the paper by the same title described above (1994).

Finding a New Approach to Measure the Operational Value of Intelligence for Military Operations: Annotated Briefing, The RAND Corporation, 1992

Simulation-Supported Exercises: These three reports were written when simulation support of military training exercises was in its infancy. More of historical interest now, they describes the issues associated with trying to provide reliable and realistic simulation support to Command Post Exercises.

Allen, Patrick D.; Lippiatt, Thomas; Pleger, Leland; Polsley, Thomas; Observations of the Caravan Guard 89 Exercise, The RAND Corporation, 1992

Allen, Patrick D.; Kahan, James; Lippiatt, Thomas; Polsley, Thomas; Worley, D.R., Observations on the Centurion Shield 90 Exercise, The RAND Corporation, 1992

Simulation Support of Large-Scale Exercises: A REFORGER Case Study, The RAND Corporation, 1992

Situational Force Scoring: This paper has been applied in the US, UK, India and Australia. This approach to assessing combat results in aggregate (theater-level) combat models was highly successful and included in the Joint Integrated Conflict Model as well as used in standalone analysis. It was the first aggregate combat assessment methodology to address combined arms effects, and contributed to the US Army National Simulation Center adopting the COBRA addendum to the Corps Battle Simulation. This methodology also avoided the pitfalls of other legacy aggregate combat models such as the Attrition-Calibration (ATCAL) methodology and the Anti-potential/Potential (APP) methodology.

Situational Force Scoring: Accounting for Combined Arms Effects in Aggregate Combat Models, The RAND Corporation, 1992

The Secondary Land Theater Model: At a time when most combat models were "piston-based" (movement of forces was along fixed parallel paths), the Secondary Land (S-Land) theater model offered a network based approach for representations of conflicts outside of Cold War Central Europe or the Korean Peninsula. Most other theaters had reduced infrastructures, and this modeling approach emphasized non-linear battlefield options, such as encirclement, airdrops, and amphibious landings. Further details are also listed in the book chapter "Progress in Simulation" listed above.

Allen, Patrick and Wilson, Barry, The Secondary Land Theater Model, The RAND Corporation, 1987

The Pace of War: Early in my combat modeling career, I realized that one of the biggest problems with combat models was that they did not well represent the "pace" of the conflict. Models were either too fast or too slow compared with historical precedence. This paper describes some of the key "rate" factors, including attrition, managing attrition, advance, unopposed movement, and other common key but misrepresented factors in aggregate combat models. These concepts were further elaboration in the "Type Battles" paper listed above.

The Pace of War in Gaming, Simulation, Doctrine, and War, The RAND Corporation, 1986

Plan Synchronization in Aggregate Combat Models: The RAND Stratagy Assessment System (RSAC), which later became the Joint integrated Contingency Model (JICM), had a fairly robust command and control representation that included plans, contingencies, and replanning. The plans were represented in the highly flexible RAND ABEL programming language, which could interpret plan elements and changes on the fly. This paper describes how we synchronized plans among various echelons for each side. The logic herein is considered a precursor to more recent agent-based models.

Shlapak, David; Allen, Patrick; Scwhabe, William, Plan Synchronization in the RSAC Environment, The RAND Corporation, 1986

Training

Training and Planning for Shifting Allegiances: In modern conflicts, there has been a resurgence of allegiance-shifting among various actors. This paper describes how and why to include the opportunities and mechanisms for shifting allegiances in both conventional and stability operations. It also makes recommendations for improvements in both the design of training events and training and battle command systems.

Training and Planning for Shifting Allegiances, RUSI Journal, Royal Uniformed Services Institute, (Vol. 153, No 5, 2008)

The Internet and the planning of exercises: This paper describes how the SIPRNet could be used to facilitate the distributed planning and preparation of Military training exercises back when the Internet was new (1997). This article was only published in the Latin American Edition of Military Review.

Allen, Patrick and Dennis Reed, La Internet y la Planificacion de Ejercicios: SIPRNET by Patrick Allen and Dennis Reed, Military Review, Latin American Edition, November-December 1997

Book Chapter: "Technology and Complexity: The Modern Military's Capacity for Change," with Chris Demchak, in Transforming Defense, Strategic Studies Institute internally reviewed monograph, Dec. 2001. The paper focuses on technology and complexity, and how the U.S. Military in particular can adapt to the emerging changes in technology.

Evolution of Models at the Warrior Preparation Center: This report is an excellent example of how an organization can paint itself into a corner by not revisiting assumptions made years ago. The Warrior Preparation Center, a simulation-based training support facility in Europe, was facing closure due to an increasing number of simulation errors occurring during exercises. By identifying the organization's underlying assumptions that were no longer currently applicable, the author was able to help the WPC identify what went wrong and how to fix it. Two recommendations were implemented by the WPC within two years, and all four recommendations were implemented within four years and sustained the organization for many years thereafter. This approach to identifying long-held assumptions is a standard technique this author uses to help organizations solve apparently intractable problems.

Evolution of Models at the Warrior Preparation Center: Problems and Solutions for Higher-Echelon Exercises, The RAND Corporation, 1993

Simulation-Supported Exercises: These three reports were written when simulation support of military training exercises was in its infancy. More of historical interest now, they describes the issues associated with trying to provide reliable and realistic simulation support to Command Post Exercises.

Allen, Patrick D.; Lippiatt, Thomas; Pleger, Leland; Polsley, Thomas; Observations of the Caravan Guard 89 Exercise, The RAND Corporation, 1992

Allen, Patrick D.; Kahan, James; Lippiatt, Thomas; Polsley, Thomas; Worley, D.R., Observations on the Centurion Shield 90 Exercise, The RAND Corporation, 1992

Simulation Support of Large-Scale Exercises: A REFORGER Case Study, The RAND Corporation, 1992

Systems Engineering

System of System Engineering and Measuring Project Complexity: This paper presents an approach that uses a checklist for measuring project complexity in a system of systems environment. This article originally appeared in the inaugural issue of the journal Systems Research Forum.

Allen, Patrick, Martin Cury, Rachael Orzechowsky, A SOSE Checklist and Mitigation Checklist Applied to Three Case Studies, Systems Research Forum, Schaefer School of Engineering Press, Stevens Institute of Technology, for the International Council of Systems Engineers, 2006

Miscellaneous

Hairball Buster: A Graph Triage Method for Viewing and Comparing Graphs: This paper presents a new and efficient approach that uses simple calculations and visualization to quickly understand and compare graphs. Rather than displaying highly interconnected graphs as "hairballs" that are difficult to understand, HB provides a simple standard visual representation of a graph and its metrics, combining a monotonically-decreasing curve of node metrics with indicators of each node's neighbors' metrics. The HB visual is canonical, in the sense that it provides a standard output for each node-link graph. It helps analysts quickly identify areas for further investigation, and also allows for easy comparison between graphs of different datasets. The calculations required for creating a HB display is order M plus N log N, where N is the number of nodes and M is the number of edges. This paper includes examples of the HB approach applied to four real-world datasets. It also compares HB to similar visual approaches such as degree histograms, adjacency matrices, blockmodeling, and force-based layout techniques. HB presents greater information density than other algorithms at lower or equal calculation cost, efficiently presenting information in a single display that is not available in any other single display.

Allen, Patrick, Mark Matties, Elisha Peterson, "Hairball Buster: A Graph Triage Method for Viewing and Comparing Graphs," Connections, Volume 39 Issue 1 Pages 1-24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21307/connections-2019-009, 28-February-2020; https://www.exeley.com/connections/doi/10.21307/connections-2019-009

Power Projection Capabilities in the Pacific Region: This paper evolved from my Air War College final paper, which was rated highly by the reviewers. This then became a RAND Paper, and has since been cited many in other articles. Though the specific data is dated now, the approach to how to categorize and compare various power projection capabilities between nations remains valid and applicable to new studies.

Power projection capabilities in the Pacific Region, The RAND Corporation, 1992; available in hardcopy only.

US Dependencies on Strategic Materials: This Congressionally mandated study tasked RAND to examine US Dependencies on strategic materials from Southern African nations. Being the only RANDite with a degree in Mineral Economics, I led the effort to first select which strategic minerals had more than 10% of their sources in Southern African nations, and then examine availability, stockpile policies and alternatives. The final report was very well received, and the methodology is equally applicable to other similar studies today.

Allen, Patrick and Noehrenberg, Peter, U.S. Dependence on Strategic Materials from Southern African Nations, The RAND Corporation, 1992